Kisima Farm group CFO Francis Ngumbi has watched the US tariff shifts land differently across flowers and crops.
Francis explains why uncertainty is often more damaging than the policy itself.
Kisima produces flowers and crops, two categories with direct export exposure. How has the shift in US trade policy landed on your business specifically?
The main impact is increased uncertainty rather than immediate disruption. Flowers face direct competitiveness risks, as farms that export to the US will move to our markets, while crops are affected more indirectly through global price movements. Overall, it puts pressure on margins and makes planning more cautious and flexible.
Floriculture exports are time-sensitive and margin-dependent. What does a 10 percent tariff do to the economics of a flower farm overnight?
A 10 percent tariff is highly disruptive in a low-margin industry. It can quickly erode profitability or force price increases that reduce demand. Since flowers are perishable and supply chains are fixed in the short term, the impact is immediate, affecting both margins and volumes.
With AGOA extended only through December 2026 and no new framework confirmed, how are you planning for a range of outcomes rather than a single scenario?
Planning is now scenario-based. Businesses are preparing for multiple outcomes, from continued access to partial or full tariffs. This involves building flexibility into operations, stress-testing financials and strengthening access to alternative markets to reduce reliance on any single destination.
Kenya is being urged to diversify export markets and deepen AfCFTA integration. As a CFO, what does that pivot actually require in practice?
Diversification requires significant investment and time. It involves developing new markets, adapting products to different requirements, setting up logistics and distribution, and managing regulatory differences. Regional trade offers potential, but also requires improvements in infrastructure and systems.
Your background spans FMCG, beauty and automotive before agriculture. Does that breadth change how you read an external shock like this compared to a CFO who has only worked in agribusiness?
Yes, it brings a broader perspective. Cross-industry experience encourages a focus on agility, market shifts and diversification rather than only cost control. It supports quicker decision-making and a more strategic response to external shocks.
What is the one thing the government could do right now that would make the most difference to agribusinesses managing this kind of external shock?
Provide clarity on trade policy direction. Clear and timely communication reduces uncertainty, supports investment decisions and helps businesses adapt more effectively. Uncertainty itself is often more damaging than the policy changes.
